The 2025 multifamily real estate market in Texas and across the U.S. was marked by transition, resilience, and recalibration. Despite economic uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and a record wave o...
The 2025 multifamily real estate market in Texas and across the U.S. was marked by transition, resilience, and recalibration. Despite economic uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and a record wave of new supply, the sector demonstrated its durability.
For business leaders, understanding the dynamics of this past year is essential to positioning for success in 2026. This blog provides a formal recap of the 2025 multifamily landscape and outlines key trends to watch in the year ahead, with a focus on Texas and insights from SWBC Real Estate.
2025 Market Recap: A Year of Stabilization and Strategic Patience
Multifamily real estate in 2025 was defined by a balancing act between supply and demand. Nationally, rent growth remained positive but modest, with a year-over-year increase of 1.0%, according to Yardi Matrix. The average rent rose to $1,755, while occupancy held steady at 94.5%. Gateway markets like New York and Chicago led rent growth, while high-supply metros such as Austin and Phoenix saw slower performance.
Texas mirrored these national trends. In cities like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio, elevated construction activity added pressure to lease-up velocity and rent growth. According to CBRE, San Antonio was among the six U.S. metros where multifamily supply peaked in 2025. This influx of inventory led to increased concessions and a focus on maintaining occupancy over pushing rents.
Despite these headwinds, investor confidence remained strong. Apartment deal volume rose 7% year-over-year to $30 billion in Q1, driven by single-property transactions, as reported by Multifamily Dive. Liquidity in the capital markets and the maturity of multifamily loans created opportunities for strategic acquisitions and refinancing.
2026 Trends: What’s Ahead for Multifamily Real Estate in Texas
Looking ahead to 2026, several trends are poised to shape the multifamily landscape—particularly in Texas.
1. Supply Pipeline Contraction and Rent Recovery
After years of aggressive development, the multifamily construction pipeline is shrinking. Nationally, construction starts have dropped 71% from their 2022 peak.
In Texas, markets like Austin and San Antonio are expected to see a 2.4%–3.0% decline in new deliveries as a share of total inventory. This slowdown will help absorb existing supply and support gradual rent growth.
CoStar projects national rent growth to accelerate to 2% by year-end 2026, with stronger performance in Midwest and Northeast markets. In Texas, rent recovery will be uneven, with Class A properties continuing to offer concessions to attract tenants, while workforce housing maintains higher retention and steadier growth.
2. Leasing Automation and Operational Efficiency
Multifamily operators are increasingly adopting automation to streamline leasing and property management. In 2026, expect widespread use of AI-powered leasing assistants, self-guided tours, and centralized leasing offices. These technologies will enhance resident experience and reduce operational costs—key priorities for owners and operators navigating tighter margins.
SWBC Real Estate is well-positioned to capitalize on these efficiencies, given its commitment to high-end finishes, professional leasing centers, and resident-focused amenities across its Texas portfolio.
3. Capital Markets Reopening and Strategic Investment
The capital markets are expected to loosen in 2026, with improved access to institutional and agency debt. Stabilized cap rates and increased clarity around interest rates will support renewed deal flow. Investors who positioned themselves in late 2025 will be first to benefit from attractive opportunities.
Texas remains a magnet for multifamily investment due to its landlord-friendly laws, strong job growth, and population expansion. SWBC Real Estate’s developments in Dallas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio continue to attract attention for their quality, scale, and strategic locations.
Strategic Positioning for 2026
As the multifamily real estate market enters 2026, business leaders must navigate a landscape shaped by supply recalibration, technological transformation, and evolving capital dynamics. Texas remains a cornerstone of multifamily investment, offering both challenges and opportunities.
SWBC Real Estate stands ready to guide investors through this next phase, backed by decades of experience, a robust portfolio, and a proven track record of delivering value in dynamic markets. Understanding the trends and lessons from 2025 is essential to making informed decisions in 2026.
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Real EstateStuart P. Smith
Stuart Smith is the Chief Operating Officer of SWBC Real Estate, where is he is responsible for identifying new development opportunities, as well as property acquisitions and dispositions. Mr. Smith brings over 20 years of commercial real estate experience, which includes participation in more than $350 million of equity invested into over $1 billion in commercial real estate transactions, including land developments, multi-family transactions, industrial developments, and the acquisition of stabilized office buildings and retail centers. He has also been directly responsible for a number of functions including: loan originations, financial analysis & underwriting, property acquisitions & dispositions, ground-up developments, asset & property management functions and project marketing & leasing. Mr. Smith is a graduate of the University of Alabama, where he received a Bachelor of Science degree in Commerce and Business Administration, with a double major in finance and marketing and a minor in economics. He is currently licensed as a Real Estate Broker in the state of Texas.
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