A Visit from Chair Powell (a.k.a. ‘Twas the Week Before Christmas) ‘Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the heavens
A Visit from Chair Powell (a.k.a. ‘Twas the Week Before Christmas)
‘Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the heavens
No markets were stirring, not even Mag 7s
Cash was invested — all trades watched with care,
In hopes that Chair Powell soon would be there;
Clients were nestled all snug in their beds;
While visions of alpha danced in their heads;
And I, in a hoody, not making a peep,
Had just settled down for a cozy night’s sleep
When across the TV, arose such a clatter,
I sprang from my bed to see whose hopes were shattered.
Away to the Bloomberg I flew with a start,
Typed in my password and pulled up a chart.
The glare from the screen confirmed what we now know
The markets reacted, not just for show,
When what to my wondering ears did I hear
2 cuts, not 4, projected next year.
I reacted so fast with a smirk and a scowl
I knew in my heart it came from Chair Powell.
More rapid than Teslas the markets did track,
Higher rates, lower prices — would they bounce back?
Now 2-Year! Now 10-Year! Now 30’s! What’s next?
The Dow, S&P, to provide you context!
Testing support as markets did fall,
When will it stop? When will it stall?
He mentioned inflation, how it may still climb,
It's not yet finished, ‘least not at this time;
And then, with real fervor, I put on a trade,
Sell now, go short bonds, how much will be made?
As I followed the presser, and took careful notes
He sounded quite hawkish, let’s load the boats.
He wore a dark suit, and a purplish-red tie,
Onward and upward rates flew to the sky.
Cautious word choices, without much flair
He is, after all, the F O M C Chair.
Jeanna Smialek asked the first question
Were cuts now needed? ‘Twas her suggestion.
Powell replied that the cut was a close call,
Price stability, and Jobs… plenty for all.
Further cuts need more data, what more do you need
To all of his comments, we must pay close heed.
More solid questions came straight out of my telly,
His answers were brief, they made sense but barely
Nick Timiraos then asked, with PCE higher,
Why would they cut, inflations not tired?
Powell soon replied about extent and timing
They act when they need to, no nickel-and diming.
Is policy restrictive? said Michael McKee,
Powell basically said, we’re where we must be.
Steve Liesman did ask about recalibration
Powell retorted without hesitation,
We’re not renaming it, but this phase is new
Rates are now lower, inflation has fallen too.
More questions, more answers until he was done,
Then he ducked off the stage, a brisk walk not a run.
And I heard him exclaim, as he passed through the door,
“Dual Mandates, strong economy, and oh so much more.”
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