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    Capital Markets | 4 min read

    Market Commentary: Week of March 29, 2021

    Last Week:

    Last week saw the resumption of the rotation trade in equities as large-cap value stocks outperformed small-cap and growth stocks.

    The Treasury market survived another supply deluge as the Treasury auctioned off approximately $180 billion in debt (two-year, five-year, and seven-year). However, it should be noted that the market sold off on Friday after the auctions were completed Thursday, giving indications that primary dealers were heavy with supply. 

    The week ended in spectacular fashion as mysterious and massive block trades of multiple Chinese big-tech stocks and U.S. media companies hit the market in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Suez Canal (and 10% of the world’s commerce) remains blocked by a container ship the length of the Empire State Building. Good times. Blockage.

    • The S&P 500 advanced 1.6% for the week. On Friday, the index set a new all-time high. The average daily move for the week was .84%

    • The NASDAQ declined 0.6% for the week. The average daily move for the week was 1.15%.

    • The two-year Treasury yield fell one basis for the week, closing at .14% on Friday.

    • The 10-year Treasury yield declined five basis points for the week, closing at 1.68% on Friday.

    • The VIX Index dropped 10% for the week, closing at 18.80 on Friday—the lowest reading since February 21, 2020.

    • The MOVE Index fell 11% for the week, closing at 61.49 on Friday.

    • Five-year Investment Grade Corporates (as measured by Markit CDX) widened five basis points for the week, closing at 58 basis points on Friday.

    • High-yield corporate debt (as measured by Markit CDX) tightened six basis points for the week, closing at 302 basis points on Friday.

    • U.S. Dollar Index appreciated 0.9% for the week, closing at 92.77 on Friday.

    • WTI Crude dropped 0.7% for the week, using the May WTI Futures contract, closing at 60.97 on Friday.

    • Gold, as measured by the April 2021 futures contract, declined 0.5% for the week, closing at 1,733 on Friday.

    • Bitcoin fell 9% for the week, closing at 54,288 on Friday.

    The Week Ahead:

    As we come into Monday morning, we are finding out more about the mysterious Friday block trades mentioned above. It turns out that the giant family office Archegos, run by infamous investor Bill Hwang, failed to meet margin calls on his highly-leveraged bets on many big Chinese and U.S. names.

    While everyone deserves a second chance, it appears that Hwang has gotten (and blown) a third chance—as he has blown up twice before—including a charge of insider-trading that got him banned from the markets for a number of years.

    Stocks are jumpy this morning as banks that gave Archegos its leverage, such as Nomura and Credit Suisse, and may be taking large losses. Nomura warned last night that its losses might be $2 billion. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are Archegos’ prime brokers as well. Additionally, it appears that the liquidation of Hwang’s positions will continue this week.

    Treasury notes are rallying this morning in what appears to be a bit of flight to safety. We get Non-Farm payroll data for March on Friday!

    Contact an advisor today

    Definitions:

    An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Definitions sourced from Bloomberg.

    • The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt Market Value Index represents the portion of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index that measures the aggregate value of global debt with a negative yield.

    • The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

    • The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

    • The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the US stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of weekly S&P 500® Index (SPX) call and put options with a range of 23 to 37 days to expiration.

    • The ICE BofA MOVE Index is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options. It is the weighted average of implied volatilities on the CT2 (Current 2 Year Government Note), CT5 (Current 5 Year Government Note), CT10 (Current 10 Year Government Note), and CT30 (Current 30 Year Government Note), with weights 0.2/0.2/0.4/0.2 respectively.

    • The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index is composed of 125 equally weighted credit default swaps on investment grade entities, distributed among 6 sub-indices: High Volatility, Consumer, Energy, Financial, Industrial, and Technology, Media & Tele-communications. Markit CDX indices roll every 6 months in March & September.

    • The Markit CDX North America High Yield Index is composed of 100 non-investment grade entities, distributed among 2 sub-indices: B, BB. All entities are domiciled in North America. Markit CDX indices roll every 6 months in March & September.

    • The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) indicates the general international value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks.

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    © 2021 SWBC. All rights reserved. Securities offered through SWBC Investment Services, LLC, a registered broker/dealer. Member FINRA & SIPC. Advisory services offered through SWBC Investment Company, a Registered Investment Advisor, registered as such with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. SWBC Investment Services, LLC is under separate ownership from any other named entity. SWBC Investment Services, LLC a division of SWBC, is a nationwide partnership of advisor.

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    John Tuohy

    John Tuohy is CEO of SWBC Investment Services, LLC, a Broker/Dealer and SWBC Investment Company, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). In his role, John is responsible for identifying, developing, and executing the division's strategic plan and all business development, sales, and marketing activities.

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