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    Capital Markets | 5 min read

    Market Commentary: Week of March 21, 2022

    Last Week

    Last week was marked once again by extreme volatility. On Wednesday, we had the Fed FOMC statement and presser. Stocks and credit risk assets were soothed by Chairman Powell’s words that his aggressive inflation fighting monetary policy wouldn’t bring on recession. Both markets held impressive rallies. However, the Treasury yield curve begged to differ, with 2’s 10’s flattening to a mere 15 basis points. That implies that bonds expect recession. Meanwhile, oil “crashed” from the highest levels seen since 2008 to just really high levels. Word was liquidity was terrible, which is to be expected with the commodity whipping around by nearly 5% a day, close to close. Then there was nickel. The mother of all short squeezes started the previous Friday and by last week the market was broken as the LME had to suspend trading in the all-important metal. Did you know that the LME didn’t have position limits? Neither did they and seemingly neither did anyone else, especially those who thought they made zillions being long only to see their trades cancelled by the LME! Good times.

    • S&P 500 sprang up 6.16% for the week. The average daily move was 1.5%.
    • The NASDQ surged 8.17% higher for the week. The average daily move for the week was a ridiculous 2.4%.
    • The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 19 basis points for the week closing 1.94% on Friday, a new year over year high. High year over year 1.94%, low yield .10%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 15 basis points for the week, closing at 2.15% Friday a new year over year high. Year over year high yield 2.15%, low yield .91%.
    • The VIX Index crashed 22% for the week, closing at 23.87 Friday. Year over year high 36.45 and low 15.07.
    • The MOVE Index fell 7% for the week, closing at 91.77 on Friday. Year over year high 140.03 and low 42.53.
    • 5-year Investment Grade Corporates (as measured by Markit CDX) spreads tightened 11 basis point for the week closing at 64 basis points Friday. High spread Year over year high 78 and low of 46.56.
    • High Yield corporate debt (as measured by Markit CDX) tightened 42 basis points, closing at 358 basis points on Friday. Year over year high 411, and low 269.
    • US Dollar Index declined .9% for the week closing at 98.22 on Friday. Year over year high 99.29 and low 89.44.
    • WTI Crude declined 4.2% for the week using the April WTI Futures contract, closing at 104.7 Friday. Year over year 123.70, and low 47.62.
    • Gold, as measured by the April 2022 futures contract, declined 2.8 % for the week closing at 1,923 on Friday. High price for the front contract year over year 1,925 and low 1,678
    • Bitcoin rose 7.4%, closing at 41,756, Friday. High price year over year 67,734 and low 29,865.

    The Week Ahead

    We come in this morning with equities off a little, Treasury yields higher, and the yield curve flatter, and in some cases like 3s-10s and 5s-10s, slightly inverted. Oil is back on the move again with the May WTI future up about 4% to $107 per barrel. While the carnage in Ukraine continues relatively unabated, it seems markets have started to take a bit of focus off. This week should be full of our rock-star Fed governors and presidents hitting the business news TV lecture circuit. St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated Friday that the Fed Funds rate should be at 3% at the end of THIS year! Chairman Powell is speaking to the National Association of Business Economics today at noon and I see Atlanta President Bostic has already hit the airwaves this morning. Economic data is not particularly heavy this week. Be lucky!

    Join our investment experts as they discuss Fed policy, Municipal bond market performance, and 2022 predictions.

    Definitions

    An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Definitions sourced from Bloomberg.

    • The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt Market Value Index represents the portion of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index that measures the aggregate value of global debt with a negative yield.
    • The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
    • The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.
    • The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the US stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of weekly S&P 500® Index (SPX) call and put options with a range of 23 to 37 days to expiration.
    • The ICE BofA MOVE Index is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options. It is the weighted average of implied volatilities on the CT2 (Current 2 Year Government Note), CT5 (Current 5 Year Government Note), CT10 (Current 10 Year Government Note), and CT30 (Current 30 Year Government Note), with weights 0.2/0.2/0.4/0.2 respectively.
    • The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index is composed of 125 equally weighted credit default swaps on investment grade entities, distributed among 6 sub-indices: High Volatility, Consumer, Energy, Financial, Industrial, and Technology, Media & Tele-communications. Markit CDX indices roll every 6 months in March & September.
    • The Markit CDX North America High Yield Index is composed of 100 non-investment grade entities, distributed among 2 sub-indices: B, BB. All entities are domiciled in North America. Markit CDX indices roll every 6 months in March & September.
    • The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) indicates the general international value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks.

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    Investing involves certain risks, including possible loss of principal. You should understand and carefully consider a strategy’s objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information before investing. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change and are not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice. Such views do not take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor that receives them. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Indices do not incur costs including the payment of transaction costs, fees and other expenses. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Securities offered through SWBC Investment Services, LLC, a registered broker/dealer. Member FINRA & SIPC. Advisory services offered through SWBC Investment Company, a Registered Investment Advisor, registered as such with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. SWBC Investment Services, LLC is under separate ownership from any other named entity. SWBC Investment Services, LLC a division of SWBC, is a nationwide partnership of advisor.

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    John Tuohy

    John Tuohy is CEO of SWBC Investment Services, LLC, a Broker/Dealer and SWBC Investment Company, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). In his role, John is responsible for identifying, developing, and executing the division's strategic plan and all business development, sales, and marketing activities.

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