One of the most common ways your borrowers can suffer significant loss of income is through a disability. While many disabilities cause only temporary loss of income, the average long-term disability ...
Last week was marked, once again, by extreme volatility. The violence of Russia’s war in Ukraine intensified while sanctions against Russia and its major industries continued to ramp up.
On Tuesday, President Biden banned imports of Russian oil, sending crude to levels not seen since the WTI contract topped $147 per barrel in 2008. With inflation readings already to the moon, the new reality of an energy shock similar to the one experienced from the 1973 OPEC oil embargo sent shudders through the markets.
Equities lurched down, then up, and then down again as the week progressed and as the nightmare of stagflation becomes a strong possibility. Treasury rates, meanwhile, rose sharply as did inflation breakeven rates.
In the week prior, we saw the two-year Treasury yield touch 1.25%; this past Friday, it closed at 1.75%! Longer-dated issues are now reacting to the possibility of higher and more deep-rooted inflation. On Thursday, CPI came in as expected, year over year 7.9%. Where will it come in over the next few months with gasoline rising toward five dollars a gallon?
- S&P 500 declined 2.89% for the week. The average daily move was 1.6%.
- The NASDAQ fell 3.52% for the week. The average daily move for the week was 2.1%.
- The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 27 basis points for the week, closing at 1.75% on Friday (a new year over year high). High year over year 1.75%, low yield .10%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose 26 basis points for the week, closing at 2% Friday. Year-over-year high yield 2.03%, low yield .91%.
- The VIX Index rose 4% for the week, closing at 30.75 Friday. On Monday, the index hit a new year-over-year high of 36.45. Year-over-year high 36.45 and low 15.07.
- The MOVE Index exploded 25% for the week, closing at 99.03 on Friday. On Monday, the index set a new yearly high of 140.03. Year-over-year high 140.03 and low 42.53.
- 5-year Investment Grade Corporates (as measured by Markit CDX) spreads widened 1 basis point for the week closing at 75 basis points Friday. On Monday, a new 1-year high was set at 78 basis points. High spread year-over-year high 78 and low of 46.56.
- High Yield corporate debt (as measured by Markit CDX) widened 8 basis points, closing at 400 basis points on Friday. On Monday, a new 1-year high was set at 411. Year-over-year high 411, and low 269.
- U.S. Dollar Index increased .5% for the week closing at 99.12 on Friday. On Monday, a new yearly high was set at 99.29. Year-over-year high 99.29 and low 89.44.
- WTI Crude declined 5.5% for the week using the April WTI Futures contract, closing at 109.33 Friday. On Tuesday, the contract set a new yearly high of 123.70. High price for the front contract year over year 123.70, and low 47.62.
- Gold, as measured by the April 2022 futures contract, rose .8% for the week closing at 1,985 on Friday. On Tuesday, the front contract closed at a new year-over-year high of 2,043. High price for the front contract year over year 1,925 and low 1,678.
- Bitcoin declined 1.4%, closing at 38,860, Friday. High price year over year 67,734 and low 29,865.
The Week Ahead
We come in this morning with European and U.S. government bond yields up sharply while equities in Europe and equity futures in the U.S. are up nearly one percent. After surging earlier last week, crude has reversed course with the front WTI future down over five percent this morning and off 16% from their high last week. Last night’s Chinese equities plunge is attributed to U.S. intelligence reports that Russia has sought Chinese military and economic assistance and continued COVID-19 fear.
Currently, fixed income, equity, and commodity markets have become untradeable as at least three major narratives are swinging them back and forth seemingly on an hourly basis. Both Fed Fund futures and OIS swaps are currently still predicting seven Fed rate hikes in 2022, which seems to be quite overdone now that we have a full-fledged energy supply shock hitting the economy. The Fed FOMC meeting begins tomorrow and ends Wednesday with the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference.
This week has already started at crazy and should progress to insanity by Wednesday. Good times.
An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Definitions sourced from Bloomberg.
- The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt Market Value Index represents the portion of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index that measures the aggregate value of global debt with a negative yield.
- The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
- The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.
- The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the US stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of weekly S&P 500® Index (SPX) call and put options with a range of 23 to 37 days to expiration.
- The ICE BofA MOVE Index is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options. It is the weighted average of implied volatilities on the CT2 (Current 2 Year Government Note), CT5 (Current 5 Year Government Note), CT10 (Current 10 Year Government Note), and CT30 (Current 30 Year Government Note), with weights 0.2/0.2/0.4/0.2 respectively.
- The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index is composed of 125 equally weighted credit default swaps on investment grade entities, distributed among 6 sub-indices: High Volatility, Consumer, Energy, Financial, Industrial, and Technology, Media & Tele-communications. Markit CDX indices roll every 6 months in March & September.
- The Markit CDX North America High Yield Index is composed of 100 non-investment grade entities, distributed among 2 sub-indices: B, BB. All entities are domiciled in North America. Markit CDX indices roll every 6 months in March & September.
- The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) indicates the general international value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks.
Investing involves certain risks, including possible loss of principal. You should understand and carefully consider a strategy’s objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information before investing. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change and are not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice. Such views do not take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor that receives them. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Indices do not incur costs including the payment of transaction costs, fees and other expenses. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Securities offered through SWBC Investment Services, LLC, a registered broker/dealer. Member FINRA & SIPC. Advisory services offered through SWBC Investment Company, a Registered Investment Advisor, registered as such with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. SWBC Investment Services, LLC is under separate ownership from any other named entity. SWBC Investment Services, LLC a division of SWBC, is a nationwide partnership of advisor.
John Tuohy is CEO of SWBC Investment Services, LLC, a Broker/Dealer and SWBC Investment Company, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). In his role, John is responsible for identifying, developing, and executing the division's strategic plan and all business development, sales, and marketing activities.